HOW TRUMP’S NOAA CUTS HELPED TURN TEXAS FLOODS DEADLY
By Jerrod Zisser
EDITOR’S NOTE
This article is part of our ongoing coverage of climate-related disasters and the policies shaping America’s readiness to respond. All sources have been triple-verified. Supporting documents are linked at the end of this article for transparency.
WHAT HAPPENED
At least 27 people are dead after catastrophic flash floods tore through central Texas on July 4, 2025, in one of the deadliest weather disasters in state history. Entire towns were submerged within hours as rivers surged more than 26 feet, overwhelming communities with little warning. Among the dead: two children at a summer camp, an elderly couple trapped in their car, and multiple families caught off guard by rapidly rising water.
Local officials have publicly criticized the National Weather Service (NWS) for issuing what they described as inaccurate rainfall forecasts that severely underestimated the magnitude of the storm. The agency originally predicted between 3 and 8 inches of rainfall, but certain areas received more than 10 inches in a single hour, triggering the devastating floods.
The criticism comes amid deep and ongoing cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its weather forecasting arms under President Donald Trump’s administration. Those cuts, part of a broader effort to downsize federal agencies, have left the United States less prepared to predict and respond to extreme weather events, experts say.
WHY IT MATTERS
The National Weather Service is the backbone of America’s early warning system for floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe weather. But since early 2025, NOAA has undergone severe reductions as part of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) plan. The cuts include:
A 26% overall budget reduction for NOAA in the FY 2026 proposal.
A 74% cut to NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which oversees weather models, forecasting tools, and satellite data.
The elimination of roughly 850–880 NOAA jobs, including meteorologists, climate scientists, and technical staff.
Many of these cuts directly impacted the National Weather Service’s ability to monitor weather patterns in real time, launch weather balloons, maintain advanced satellite systems, and issue timely, accurate forecasts.
In May, all five living former directors of the National Weather Service jointly warned that these cuts could “lead to needless loss of life” during severe weather seasons. Just weeks later, those fears became reality in Texas.
“This is exactly what we were worried about,” said Dr. Durland Fish, professor emeritus of epidemiology at Yale University, who has studied environmental health risks in flood-prone areas. “Forecasting errors can be the difference between life and death, especially when people need time to evacuate or prepare.”
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Texas disaster is likely to reignite a national debate over federal preparedness for extreme weather at a time when climate change is fueling more frequent and intense storms.
Key developments to monitor include:
Congressional hearings: Several lawmakers, including Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), have called for hearings on the impact of NOAA staffing reductions.
Emergency management reviews: FEMA and state emergency management agencies are under pressure to assess how much the faulty forecast affected response times.
Legal action: Families of the victims may pursue lawsuits against local or federal agencies for failure to warn.
Additionally, hurricane season is just beginning, and with reduced forecasting capacity, multiple experts warn that the U.S. is entering a period of heightened risk without the necessary infrastructure to cope.
BOTTOM LINE
The deadly floods in Texas expose the real-world consequences of political decisions made in Washington, D.C. Cuts to NOAA and the National Weather Service—once dismissed by Trump as “efficiency improvements”—left Americans more vulnerable at a time when weather extremes are becoming more dangerous and unpredictable.
Without full staffing, modern forecasting models, and continuous investment in scientific research, disasters like this will only grow deadlier. The cost of inaction is no longer theoretical—it is being paid in lives.
SOURCE DOCUMENTS
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